Since 2026, the global tungsten carbide market has presented a core pattern of “supply contraction and demand expansion”, with prices continuing their high-level volatile upward trend. The core driving logic runs through both supply and demand sides. Based on industry policies, cost transmission and the global supply chain pattern, a comprehensive judgment shows that: in the short term, prices will maintain strong volatility; in the medium term, there is sufficient upward momentum; in the long term, the price center will rise steadily.
Supply-side contraction is the core support for price increases, and the industry’s supply constraints show rigid characteristics. As the world’s core supplier of tungsten resources, China has continuously tightened the total tungsten concentrate mining quota. Coupled with the annual decline in mine resource grade and the improvement of environmental compliance thresholds, the effective supply of upstream tungsten concentrate has continued to shrink, directly transmitting to the midstream tungsten carbide production link. At the same time, the continuous implementation of domestic tungsten product export control policies has further reduced the available supply in overseas markets, leading to a “tight balance” in the global tungsten resource supply. From the perspective of industry operating data, the operating rate of major domestic tungsten carbide manufacturers remains in the range of 75%-85%, and spot inventories are at a historically low level. It is difficult for the supply side to form effective increments, supporting high prices.
The demand side has strong rigid support, and the expansion of demand in high-end fields has become the core growth pole. As the core raw material of cemented carbide, tungsten carbide is widely used in cutting tools, new energy equipment, military manufacturing, construction machinery and precision molds. With the advancement of global manufacturing upgrading, the demand for high-end application fields such as CNC tools and photovoltaic tungsten wire is growing rapidly. Coupled with the concentrated release of replenishment demand from downstream enterprises after resumption of production, the supply-demand gap is further widened. According to industry data estimates, the global total demand for tungsten carbide is expected to increase by 7%-11% year-on-year in 2026, of which the demand growth rate in high-end fields exceeds 10%, and rigid demand support has become an important driving force for price increases.
Cost and policy factors further enhance price resilience. The continuous high price of upstream tungsten concentrate directly pushes up the production cost of tungsten carbide, and enterprises have a strong willingness to pass on cost pressures; at the same time, as a strategically scarce resource, countries around the world continue to strengthen their control over tungsten resources, and the long-term expectation of supply contraction is clear. In the short term, the pace of mine resumption lags behind the pace of demand recovery, and the tight spot market pattern cannot be alleviated quickly, so prices still have room to rise; in the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the undertaking capacity of downstream demand. If high prices inhibit the purchasing demand of small and medium-sized downstream enterprises, there may be a phased slight fluctuation, but the overall center is difficult to move down.
In summary, the current tight supply-demand balance pattern of the tungsten carbide market has not undergone a fundamental change. The rigidity of supply constraints and the continuous expansion of demand resonate, and the upward momentum of prices is sufficient. In the long run, with the upgrading of global manufacturing and the prominent strategic attribute of tungsten resources, the price of tungsten carbide will bid farewell to the low-price cycle, maintain a high-level volatile and steady upward operation trend, and the industry will enter a stage of high-quality development.
